The picture of the Premier League table on Christmas Day has gained a new significance, as a new supercomputer forecast strengthened the position of Arsenal at the top. Arsenal are at the top of the table on December 25 once again, for the fifth time in their history, with a very small two-point margin.
The team of Mikel Arteta has developed its campaign on the basis of defensive control and regularity, and recently, its squeegee has been slightly weaker. The loss of points prior to the Christmas season allowed Manchester City to reduce the margin from seven to two points in 17 games.
The Opta supercomputer reckons that despite that reversed momentum, Arsenal still stands the best chance of becoming champions in spite of all that. According to the model, their chances of completing first are 68.7 percent, which means that the final score will be slightly more than 82 points.
The pursuit by City has been consistent, but the simulation indicates that they will not make it during the latter half of the season. It is predicted that the side of Pep Guardiola will end approximately six points behind and with a 24.4 percent chance of receiving the title.
The Christmas Premier League table race seems at first sight to be a three-horse race in which Aston Villa also has significant chances of winning. Nevertheless, the data provided by Opta indicates that the team of Unai Emery is slowly losing its strength, however, remaining firmly in the third-place position.
There is an added interest in the history of Arsenal at the top. Of the last 33 Christmas leaders, only 17 have gone further to win the trophy, with three of those being Arsenal.
The missed opportunities are still fresh since they happened twice within the past three seasons. Consequently, at any given time, Arteta has always stressed internal orientation relative to league position when there is congestion.
The title picture may still be redefined by the run-in that is yet to come. Arsenal will come to City in April and will have a batch of seven matches left, with Villa coming home to end the hectic schedule.
The supercomputer has a more favorable rating of the final matches of Arsenal, but there are still significant obstacles. The highlights include meetings at Newcastle United and an end-of-season visit to Crystal Palace.
Conversely, on the other end of the Premier League table, the model is depicting a dark picture. Wolverhampton Wanderers are expected to end in the bottom and have nearly 19 points, West Ham United and Burnley are also expected to be relegated.
Having scored 39 points out of 17 games, the Christmas lead in the English title shows performance and strength. This prediction is now being put to the test by the second half of the season, whether it will become reality at last.
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