Arsenal are closer than ever to winning the Premier League title after Manchester City dropped points at home to Nottingham Forest — and the numbers now firmly favour the Gunners.
Arsenal Move Seven Points Clear at the Top
Arsenal’s Premier League title dream is alive and well. A hard-fought 1-0 win at Brighton on March 5, 2026, combined with Manchester City’s 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest, has pushed Mikel Arteta’s side seven points clear at the summit.
The Gunners now sit on 67 points from 30 games. City have 60 points from 29 games — meaning they still hold a game in hand. But crucially, the title is no longer in City’s hands.
Bukayo Saka’s early goal was enough to seal all three points at the Amex Stadium. It was not pretty. But it was effective.
The Win Was Not Without Controversy
Arsenal’s approach at Brighton drew sharp criticism. Despite leading at half-time, their expected goals (xG) figure stood at just 0.01. They did not register their second shot on target until the 88th minute.
Goalkeeper David Raya went to ground three times in what many observers viewed as deliberate time-wasting. The tactics frustrated Brighton head coach Fabian Hürzeler.
“I would never try to win that way.”
Hürzeler was not done there.
“Arsenal just do what they want.”
The German coach’s comments reflect the irritation felt across Amex Stadium. Arsenal were focused on the result, not the performance. Declan Rice certain injury.
How Many Points Do Arsenal Need to Win the Title?
This is the question every Arsenal fan is asking right now.
According to Opta models, Arsenal have approximately an 83% chance of winning the Premier League title. Their predicted final points tally sits at around 82–83 points, compared to 77 for City.
The exact number Arsenal need depends heavily on what happens between now and the end of the season — especially at the Etihad Stadium on April 19, when the two sides meet directly.
Here is a breakdown of the key scenarios:
- If Arsenal win at Man City: City’s maximum possible total drops significantly. Arsenal would need roughly 19–23 more points from their remaining eight games to mathematically secure the title.
- If the match ends in a draw: Arsenal would likely need around 25 points from their nine remaining fixtures to be safe.
- If City win the head-to-head: The gap narrows sharply. Arsenal would need close to maximum points from their remaining games to clinch it.
These figures represent the conservative mathematical threshold — the point at which City cannot catch Arsenal even if they win every other game.
Premier League Standings — Top Two (As of March 5, 2026)
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Arsenal | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 67 |
| 2nd | Manchester City | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 60 |
When Could Arsenal Mathematically Win the Title?
Arsenal have nine league games remaining. Their fixtures are largely favourable, with many matches against mid-table and lower-table opposition.
The earliest mathematical confirmation could come after the April 19 Etihad clash — provided Arsenal win and have built enough cushion in the games before it.
In an optimistic scenario, Arsenal could be confirmed as champions with two to three games to spare — potentially in late April or early May.
The final day of the Premier League season falls around May 24. However, based on current form and the fixture list, Arsenal are well-positioned to wrap things up before then.
City’s remaining run includes a difficult trip to Chelsea, which adds further pressure to Pep Guardiola’s side.
Arsenal’s Title Charge: What History Says
Arsenal have not won the Premier League since the iconic 2003/04 Invincibles season — a 22-year wait that has defined a generation of the club’s history.
That wait could finally end this May. The foundations are in place. The lead is real. The pressure is on City, not Arsenal.
The Gunners Are in the Driving Seat
This Arsenal side have shown they can grind out results even when they are far from their best. That is the mark of a title-winning team.
The April 19 clash at the Etihad looms large. Win that game, and Arsenal could be celebrating before the end of the month.
The Premier League title is within touching distance. And after 22 years of waiting, North London is daring to believe.